PRECIPIQ

LABS

Precipitation Intelligence & Forecast Skill

Pipeline online
Board: 2026-08-20
Rendered: 2026-08-20 23:21 UTC

v0.10 · Today + Tomorrow + Snow Lab

Today at 7 AM. Tomorrow at 6 PM. Rain or snow. Then we keep score.

The flagship Today board freezes from one 7 AM ET cutoff across all 14 cities. Tomorrow freezes at 6 PM ET the evening before. Snow-phase and radar intelligence are scored separately and cannot rewrite either forecast.

Latest Top 5 score

2/3

67% accuracy

Today forecast status

Frozen 7:33 AM ET · 14 cities evaluated

🔥 PRECIPIQ SIGNAL WATCH

Rising Signal · City to Watch

SURGING

Philadelphia, PAKPHL

+6.6 pp

6 PM87%

7 AM93%

The probability climbed fastest across the frozen 6 PM → 7 AM pair. This is a momentum watch, not a claim that this city has the highest absolute probability.

Likely phase UnknownConfidence: high → mediumAgreement: strong → moderateRadar support 100% intercept · High confidence

Frozen directional call · 2026-08-20 · radar remains 0% production weight

📉 PRECIPIQ SIGNAL WATCH

Falling Signal · Forecast Cooling

COOLING

Phoenix, AZKPHX

-20.0 pp

6 PM40%

7 AM20%

The probability fell fastest across the frozen 6 PM → 7 AM pair. Precipitation may still occur, but the earlier wet signal has weakened materially.

Likely phase UnknownConfidence: medium → highAgreement: moderate → strongRadar support 100% intercept · Medium confidence

Frozen directional call · 2026-08-20 · radar remains 0% production weight

Lifetime Top 567%

Last 7 days67%

Last 30 days67%

Opening Brier ↓Pending first v0.10 score

Classification rule≥50% = YES

Data completeness

PRECIPIQ shows missing evidence explicitly and never reconstructs unavailable historical inputs.

Forecast: 2026-08-20

Pre-opening momentumNot captured2h / 6h snapshots

Probability verificationPending first matured v0.10 verificationFrozen event probabilities only

Radar ShadowCaptured today0% production weight

Daily Rain Probability + Forecast Momentum Ranking

Today’s Rain Ranking — Thursday, August 20, 2026

Analysis time: Aug 20, 2026 · 7:33 AM ET · Remaining local daytime precipitation only. Official NWS guidance leads; NBM, HRRR and supporting model guidance refine momentum, agreement and uncertainty.

Strengthening0

Weakening0

Models converging6

Higher uncertainty1

MiamiKMIA

100% rain probability

Not captured Models: Mixed Confidence: Low

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 100%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak54%

NBM peak28%

HRRR precip0.7 mm

PhiladelphiaKPHL

93% rain probability

Not captured Models: Mixed Confidence: Medium

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 93%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak85%

NBM peak62%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

Washington DCKDCA

73% rain probability

Not captured Models: Mixed Confidence: Medium

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 73%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak81%

NBM peak48%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

DenverKDEN

23% rain probability

Not captured Models: Mixed Confidence: Medium

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 23%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak0%

NBM peak1%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

AtlantaKATL

20% rain probability

Not captured Models: Converging Confidence: High

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 20%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak22%

NBM peak9%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

BostonKBOS

20% rain probability

Not captured Models: Converging Confidence: High

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 20%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak18%

NBM peak11%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

PhoenixKPHX

20% rain probability

Not captured Models: Converging Confidence: High

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 20%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak7%

NBM peak4%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

New OrleansKMSY

3% rain probability

Not captured Models: Converging Confidence: High

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 3%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak6%

NBM peak2%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

Las VegasKLAS

3% rain probability

Not captured Models: Converging Confidence: High

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 3%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak1%

NBM peak1%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

#10

Los AngelesKLAX

3% rain probability

Not captured Models: Converging Confidence: High

07:00 ET national RAINCAST: GEFS exact-event probability 3%; NBM momentum unavailable; NWS/NBM/HRRR retained as support.

6h momentum—

2h momentum—

NWS peak0%

NBM peak1%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

Outside the Top 10

NBM Δ2hNot captured

NWS peak22%

NBM peak9%

HRRR precip0.0 mm

Forecast Story · Tomorrow · August 21, 2026

At-a-glance narrative from the frozen 6 PM forecast

◆ TOMORROW

New Orleans, LA

KMSY

70%PRECIPIQ

MorningUnknownNWS peak around 6 PM

6 PM freeze70%evening-before

7 AM freezePendingawaiting 7 AM freeze

ObservedPendingawaiting verification

GEFS / PRECIPIQ70%

NWS peak24%

NBM peak14%

Mixed agreement · Low confidence. The ensemble sees the event, but supporting models still disagree on strength or timing. HRRR window precip: 0.0 mm.

◆ TOMORROW

Miami, FL

KMIA

67%PRECIPIQ

MorningUnknownNWS peak around 5 PM

6 PM freeze67%evening-before

7 AM freezePendingawaiting 7 AM freeze

ObservedPendingawaiting verification

GEFS / PRECIPIQ67%

NWS peak48%

NBM peak19%

Mixed agreement · Low confidence. The ensemble sees the event, but supporting models still disagree on strength or timing. HRRR window precip: 0.0 mm.

☂ TOMORROW

Chicago, IL

KORD

40%PRECIPIQ

MorningRainNWS peak around 7 PM

6 PM freeze40%evening-before

7 AM freezePendingawaiting 7 AM freeze

ObservedPendingawaiting verification

GEFS / PRECIPIQ40%

NWS peak41%

NBM peak21%

Strong agreement · High confidence. Guidance is lining up across the ensemble and supporting models. HRRR window precip: 0.4 mm.

☂ TOMORROW

Atlanta, GA

KATL

37%PRECIPIQ

MorningRainNWS peak around 2 PM

6 PM freeze37%evening-before

7 AM freezePendingawaiting 7 AM freeze

ObservedPendingawaiting verification

GEFS / PRECIPIQ37%

NWS peak63%

NBM peak29%

Moderate agreement · Medium confidence. Signal exists, but model support is still limited. HRRR window precip: 10.5 mm.

☂ TOMORROW

Boston, MA

KBOS

33%PRECIPIQ

MorningRainNWS peak around 7 PM

6 PM freeze33%evening-before

7 AM freezePendingawaiting 7 AM freeze

ObservedPendingawaiting verification

GEFS / PRECIPIQ33%

NWS peak39%

NBM peak21%

Strong agreement · High confidence. Guidance is lining up across the ensemble and supporting models. HRRR window precip: 0.4 mm.

TOMORROW · Friday, August 21, 2026 · 6 PM ET Frozen Top 5

Immutable evening-before forecast · tracked separately

Forecast date: Friday, August 21, 2026 Updated: August 20, 2026 at 6:38 PM ET Lifetime Top 5: Pending Brier: Pending Scored days: 0 · awaiting first matured verification

Tomorrow Top 5	Event P	NWS	NBM	HRRR
#1 New Orleans `KMSY`	70%	24%	14%	0.0 mm
#2 Miami `KMIA`	67%	48%	19%	0.0 mm
#3 Chicago `KORD`	40%	41%	21%	0.4 mm
#4 Atlanta `KATL`	37%	63%	29%	10.5 mm
#5 Boston `KBOS`	33%	39%	21%	0.4 mm

Forecast Movement · 6 PM → 7 AM

Same target date: 2026-08-20 · immutable evening vs morning forecasts

Tracks how the national Top 5 changes overnight without rewriting either frozen forecast: new entries, dropouts, rank movement and exact-event probability change.

Top-5 overlap3/5

New at 7 AM2

Dropped since 6 PM2

Biggest P swingPhoenix -20 pp

New: Atlanta, Denver · Dropped: Boston, Phoenix

City	6 PM rank	7 AM rank	Move	6 PM P	7 AM P	Δ P	Status
Miami `KMIA`	1	1	—	100%	100%	+0 pp	HELD
Philadelphia `KPHL`	2	2	—	87%	93%	+7 pp	HELD
Washington DC `KDCA`	3	3	—	77%	73%	-3 pp	HELD
Denver `KDEN`	7	4	↑ 3	23%	23%	+0 pp	NEW
Atlanta `KATL`	6	5	↑ 1	30%	20%	-10 pp	NEW
Boston `KBOS`	5	6	↓ 1	37%	20%	-17 pp	DROPPED
Phoenix `KPHX`	4	7	↓ 3	40%	20%	-20 pp	DROPPED

Event Replay

Follow one weather event from first frozen call through radar and verification

DateCity

Historical stages are never reconstructed. Missing evidence is shown as Not captured.

Prediction Replay

Watch a frozen forecast evolve, then compare it with reality

DateCity

Only stored immutable snapshots and verified outcomes are shown.

PRECIPIQ Market Edge Lab

Experimental · PRECIPIQ probability vs Polymarket market-implied probability

MARKET EDGE LAB

Where does PRECIPIQ disagree with the market?

Read-only market data is captured at the same 7 AM forecast window and frozen for later verification. Market prices never alter the immutable PRECIPIQ forecast. Proxy matches are clearly labeled when contract resolution rules differ from PRECIPIQ's scored event.

Forecast date2026-08-20Next 7 AM capture

City / Event	PRECIPIQ	Market	Edge	Momentum	Confidence	Signal
Miami `KMIA`	100%	No comparable market	—	Not captured	Low	Awaiting comparable market
Philadelphia `KPHL`	93%	No comparable market	—	Not captured	Medium	Awaiting comparable market
Washington DC `KDCA`	73%	No comparable market	—	Not captured	Medium	Awaiting comparable market
Denver `KDEN`	23%	No comparable market	—	Not captured	Medium	Awaiting comparable market
Atlanta `KATL`	20%	No comparable market	—	Not captured	High	Awaiting comparable market

Edge = PRECIPIQ probability − market midpoint probability. The first real market snapshot will be captured automatically with the next 7 AM ET Today forecast. Same-city, same-date rain/precipitation contracts only; no trading actions are performed.

Prediction Performance

Forecast vs observed reality · the PRECIPIQ scoreboard

A precipitation prediction is classified as YES when probability is ≥ 50% and NO when it is below 50%. Correct/Wrong compares that classification with the verified ≥0.01 inch local 08:00–20:00 outcome. History begins with three archived baseline days; live-issued PRECIPIQ scoring continues from Aug. 20 onward.

Total scored42

Correct42

Wrong0

Overall accuracy100.0%

Did we call it?

Latest matured city forecasts compared with observed precipitation

Outcome cards will appear after the first matured verification.

Correct vs Wrong by City

Historical start + every matured live city prediction

● Correct ● Wrong

Atlanta

3 ✓ 0 ×

Austin

3 ✓ 0 ×

Boston

3 ✓ 0 ×

Chicago

3 ✓ 0 ×

Denver

3 ✓ 0 ×

Las Vegas

3 ✓ 0 ×

Los Angeles

3 ✓ 0 ×

Miami

3 ✓ 0 ×

New Orleans

3 ✓ 0 ×

Philadelphia

3 ✓ 0 ×

Phoenix

3 ✓ 0 ×

San Francisco

3 ✓ 0 ×

Seattle

3 ✓ 0 ×

Washington DC

3 ✓ 0 ×

Accuracy Over Time

Cumulative accuracy from Aug. 17 forward

Detailed forecast records

HISTORICAL START · first 3 days

City-by-city record for the initial 2026-08-17 through 2026-08-19 history used to seed the scoreboard before live-issued PRECIPIQ scoring begins.

Predictions scored42

Correct42

Wrong0

Accuracy100.0%

City	Scored	Correct	Accuracy
Atlanta	3	3	100.0%
Austin	3	3	100.0%
Boston	3	3	100.0%
Chicago	3	3	100.0%
Denver	3	3	100.0%
Las Vegas	3	3	100.0%
Los Angeles	3	3	100.0%
Miami	3	3	100.0%
New Orleans	3	3	100.0%
Philadelphia	3	3	100.0%
Phoenix	3	3	100.0%
San Francisco	3	3	100.0%
Seattle	3	3	100.0%
Washington DC	3	3	100.0%

TODAY · 7 AM forecast record

City-by-city classification record for the immutable morning forecast.

Predictions scored0

Correct0

Wrong0

AccuracyPending

Pending — no eligible matured scored prediction is available yet.

TOMORROW · 6 PM forecast record

City-by-city classification record for the immutable evening-before forecast.

Predictions scored0

Correct0

Wrong0

AccuracyPending

Pending — no eligible matured scored prediction is available yet.

SNOW · experimental classification record

Separate measurable-snow scorecard using the frozen experimental snow probability and the existing 50% snow classification threshold. No-snow outcomes remain visible, so this record should be read alongside snow-event count and Brier score.

Predictions scored0

Correct0

Wrong0

AccuracyPending

Pending — no eligible matured scored prediction is available yet.

Probability calibration

All configured city-days, not only Top 5

Forecast band	Mean forecast	Observed rain	Brier
0-20%	Pending	Pending	Pending
20-40%	Pending	Pending	Pending
40-60%	Pending	Pending	Pending
60-80%	Pending	Pending	Pending
80-100%	Pending	Pending	Pending

PRECIPIQ LAB

Experimental science · zero production influence until proven

Precipitation Type Intelligence

Experimental PRECIPIQ phase allocation · separately scored

GEFS supplies the exact-event precipitation probability. HRRR rain/snow amounts currently allocate that probability across rain, snow and mixed categories. These phase percentages are a PRECIPIQ experimental allocation, not raw ensemble-member phase frequencies, and they do not affect the official Top 5 ranking.

Today

TODAY · 7 AM ET Frozen Top 5	Type	Rain allocation	Snow allocation	Mixed allocation	Phase confidence
#1 Miami `KMIA`	Rain	100%	0%	0%	Moderate
#2 Philadelphia `KPHL`	Unknown	—	—	—	Limited
#3 Washington DC `KDCA`	Unknown	—	—	—	Limited
#4 Denver `KDEN`	Unknown	—	—	—	Limited
#5 Atlanta `KATL`	Unknown	—	—	—	Limited

Tomorrow

Tomorrow Top 5	Type	Rain allocation	Snow allocation	Mixed allocation	Phase confidence
#1 New Orleans `KMSY`	Unknown	—	—	—	Limited
#2 Miami `KMIA`	Unknown	—	—	—	Limited
#3 Chicago `KORD`	Rain	40%	0%	0%	Moderate
#4 Atlanta `KATL`	Rain	37%	0%	0%	High
#5 Boston `KBOS`	Rain	33%	0%	0%	Moderate

Latest Today Snow Verification

Primary: official NWS climate snowfall via IEM. Fallback: mature IEM coordinate-based 12Z snowfall analysis. Pending observations are retried automatically.

Top 5	Snow allocation	Observed outcome	Source	Confidence	Forecast type
#1 Miami `KMIA`	—	No measurable snow Unscored forecast class	NWS daily climate report via Iowa Environmental Mesonet	High	—
#2 Denver `KDEN`	—	No measurable snow Unscored forecast class	IEM daily gridded snowfall analysis	Medium	—
#3 Phoenix `KPHX`	—	No measurable snow Unscored forecast class	NWS daily climate report via Iowa Environmental Mesonet	High	—
#4 New Orleans `KMSY`	—	No measurable snow Unscored forecast class	NWS daily climate report via Iowa Environmental Mesonet	High	—
#5 Chicago `KORD`	—	No measurable snow Unscored forecast class	NWS daily climate report via Iowa Environmental Mesonet	High	—

Latest Tomorrow Snow Verification

Top 5	Snow allocation	Observed snow	Observed outcome	Source	Confidence	Forecast type
Snow verification appears after a forecast day matures.

Radar Shadow Lab

PRECIPIQ-native station-intercept nowcast · experimental

Shadow · 0% production weightThese probabilities are being scored independently. They cannot alter the TODAY · 7 AM ET Frozen Top 5 until verified skill justifies promotion.

City / Radar	P(rain intercept ≤3h)	Motion	Motion method	Confidence
Chicago `KORD · KLOT`	100%	22 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Austin `KAUS · KEWX`	100%	12 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Miami `KMIA · KAMX`	100%	22 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Low
Denver `KDEN · KFTG`	100%	53 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Philadelphia `KPHL · KDIX`	100%	45 km/h	Phase Correlation	High
San Francisco `KSFO · KMUX`	100%	84 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Washington DC `KDCA · KLWX`	100%	44 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Boston `KBOS · KBOX`	100%	14 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Phoenix `KPHX · KIWA`	100%	96 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Atlanta `KATL · KFFC`	100%	37 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Las Vegas `KLAS · KESX`	79%	69 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Medium
Seattle `KSEA · KATX`	2%	6 km/h	Reflectivity Centroid	Low
Los Angeles `KLAX · KVTX`	0%	0 km/h	Persistence Unphysical Rejected	Low